"Hold em is to stud what chess is to checkers.", Johnny Moss

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

I am my own worst enemy

Recently I been giving too much credit to those who don't deserve, let me explain. This month has not been a good month and we are only 6 days in. I have managed to not end one day being profitable and I blame it on my inability to realize my opponents are bad at playing poker. Yes, you read that last line correct; I can not come to the grasp that my opponents do not know how to play poker.

For instance, have you ever been in a situation were a flop comes down something like A-A-T and the first person to act bets out 1/2 the pot, you reraise with K-T and everyone folds to the original raiser - he calls. The Turn brings a 3 so the board looks like A-A-T-3. The 3 added two diamonds, but the rest of the board is a rainbow. The opponent, first to act, goes all in. Now your sitting there wondering what he might possibly have. Is he on a flush draw, does he have a T or a 3, does he have the A? You try to quick think before your 20 seconds are up and assume that any decent player would not raise, first to act, with a set - you rule out the A right away. So does he have pocket pair QQ-KK, or even TT? Maybe he has 33 and has a full house? You have all this information, yet you have to process it quickly and make a decision.

AA, Ax, TT - Unlikely that a player would bet 1/2 the pot when first to act into multiple people.
KK-QQ - The player did not raise preflop, so this is unlikely
KQ, QJ, JT, QT - Likely hands that a player might limp into with multiple people in the pot. A player might feel that he has enough outs to make an all in play now that the pot has grown rather large.
99-66 - Likely as well, limps in hoping to score a set and now has two pair and feels he is in front. The lower the pair, the more likely they would have fold to the raise on the flop.
55-22 - Most of these hands would fold with the raise on the flop.
33 - He's betting that the 3's helped him, but it's unlikely that they did because of the action on the flop
Flush - Unlikely with the betting on the flop.

Most likely hands, a huge drawing hand, a pocket pair, or a T with a weaker kicker making a move since no J, Q, or K hit the board.

You make the call and the player has A-4, you lose.

This above scenario is just that, a scenario. Sometimes you see a player make an all in bet like this on the Turn when they have a huge chip stack. When this happens you also consider things like "is he using his stack against me, hoping I fold?". I've had this happen to me so many times playing low limit games. The few times I do call these bets the opponents have a monster hand and I lose most, if not all, my chips. Plays like this become more dangerous when you are short stacked. A player bets 1/2 the pot when he is the first person to act, you raise all in which may be 2x-4x his original bet, all others fold, your feeling good, he calls and shows trip Aces, you lose.

So where did I go wrong? Most average poker players know they they can gain maximum profits from trapping players with such hands. The same situation where a player first to act checks, another person bets, and then this player either smooth calls or reraises are typical actions you see a person to do when they have a big hand. The reason most people do this is because they want to guarantee that they make maximum profit from their monster hand. When there are no danger cards, you have no reason to chase out any of your opponents. Fundamentally it all goes back to "weak means strong, strong means weak". An average player, or at least a player who knows "something" about poker, performs this action. This is where I go wrong.

My problem is that I give my opponents this credit. I give them the credit that they will act weak when strong, and strong when weak. That they will try to maximize profits off big hands and not attempt to scare off their competition. All this, I give credit to automatically... and it's cost me a lot of money. The truth is, playing in "micro limit" poker the players are not average... they're complete fish. I've found that most of the time when a player moves all in on a strong board, they have the hand. Now I am not saying every time a player moves in they have a hand. I am saying when a board has a flush, straight, or full house potential and they go all in, they usually have the hand. The fact is, these players are too weak to play "tricky" and completely lack the know-how on maximizing their hand value. These players are simply playing their cards and betting them respectfully. They are not trying to "out smart" or "out think" you, they don't even know how! And here I am, the guy who gives these players all the credit that they don't deserve, losing my money to them - the fish.

Lately, it's I have been in a lot of situations like this that has cost me my chips. My normal action has always been to fold in situations like these as long as folding still leaves me healthy on chips. Being that I have been labeled as "too tight" of a player, I have been attempting to be more aggressive, take more chances, and try new plays. All of this has done nothing more but lose tons of money in the last few weeks. My feelings on the subject? I should have stayed my tight-ass self =)

My Course of Action
I will finish the tail end of The Poker Tournament Formula, then start reading (and finish or course) Mathematics of Poker. I will also make the investment to join PokerXFactor, since I haven't found much guidance with Real Poker Training that I've hoped for. I think Todd Arnold and the gang are excellent players, but a lot of what I've seen there is what I already do. The only difference is, when they raise 4x BB in a $100 SNG, a player doesn't call them out of position with A-3 like a $20 SNG player, thus your not loosing your money with a hand like QQ when T-3-3 comes down. (I've had my Ace's cracked recently with a hand just like this). I'm not saying PokerXFactor is better then RPT, hell I have no idea because I am not a member, I am simply saying that I have watched all their videos, gained all the knowledge I think I can, and need something with more content. I must compile all this information and spend the time needed to redevelop my ability to control a table. For some reason, ever since I won those 3 WPEX tournaments I haven't done much else but watch my graph go down. There has to be a reason for it, a leak in my play, and I am out to plug it up. But first, I need to learn how to call a spade a spade, a club a club, and a weak player who only plays he hands.... a weak player who only plays his hands.

3 Comments:

Blogger CybrWlf said...

So what about me .. the wild guy who never knows what he has and every once in a blue(with pink and purple pokadots) can talk Harry into a hand that I think I can win. Sup man Just thought I stop in and say hi.

I know playing poker online has to be WAY harder to read people but looks like you have to remeber, you can be playing noobs and maniacs just like me every once in a while. I think your probably being to harsh on yourself... remeber it's a game, even if you can win money at it.

12:49 AM

 
Blogger yabi said...

Hey wolf,
Thanks for the comments and stopping by. When playing online it's a way different animal then in person. I have a good scense to read people's actions when playing in person. Online, there isn't anyone to study. When you're faced with a table filled with players who do not know what hands they even have, it makes decisions a lot harder. You can't buy a person off a hand, or make moves they'd understand. When you're in this situation, you yourself are gambling to a point. In a live game you might have 1-2 players like this. Not everyone on your table is ignorant to the fact of what the board says and what others might hold.

Basically it's simple, I stay the hell away from pots you're in =) But a table full of Wolfs... deadly.

Cheers man, lets get together!

8:50 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

live game next tuesday, i expect to see a wolf!

3:13 PM

 

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